Nobody wants to say here we go again, but here we are. Ontario has lived a relatively charmed pandemic life since the summer, and it appears to be over. The province’s seven-day case average has risen approximately 30 per cent in a week; vaccination efforts are stalling as we go. One rule of the virus is that unchecked, it will spread exponentially. We’re back there.
“Do you remember where we were immediately before Thanksgiving? That’s the behaviour and the extent of restrictions that is compatible with control of the pandemic,” says Dr. Peter Juni, the scientific director of Ontario’s independent volunteer science table. “So think how it was before Thanksgiving, and think about how much you were inside with other people. You shouldn’t do it more than you did then.”
If it sounds like going backwards, it is, in the province where the premier keeps saying he never wants to go back. A return to pre-Thanksgiving restrictions would mean a return of capacity limits in restaurants, bars, gyms, theatres and at sporting events, for a start. A return to pre-Thanksgiving social patterns should be achievable, if we just keep a bigger picture in mind. This can be done.
It was coming, either way. COVID’s effective reproduction rate needs to stay below 1 to shrink, and Ontario wasn’t far away when the government eliminated capacity limits on large sporting events and theatres Oct. 8, and on restaurants, bars and gyms Oct. 25.
Meanwhile, the weather got colder, Monday excepted, and changes in weather mean changes in human behaviour, and that is all you’re ever really talking about with this virus. Sudbury is the current Ontario epicentre and is already reinstituting capacity limits, reinforcing masking and vaccine passports. The science table’s modelling update later this week is not expected to be as positive as earlier versions. Sigh.
“The fact is, look, (the reopening) is an experiment,” says Juni. “Now we know the experiment didn’t go well.”
Yes, this wave is different. Vaccination isn’t perfect, but it offers extraordinary protection against the virus and especially serious illness. The link between cases and hospitalizations is not the same. But it’s still there.
“It’s clear that the association has been weakened,” said Juni. “But because we still have so many people out there who are eligible for a vaccine who haven’t received it yet, we continue to be challenged. That’s just part of it. If you don’t believe me, we can go everywhere. We can go to Alberta, you can go to Denmark, you can go to Israel before their booster shots. It all looks the same. There’s absolutely no reason to believe we would be different.”
Indeed. 75 per cent of Ontario’s total population has two doses of the vaccine. Denmark is at 76 per cent, removed all restrictions in early September along with its vaccine passport, and like many countries across Europe, restrictions are being reintroduced. No major nation has achieved a high enough rate of vaccination to achieve escape velocity, yet.
“The problem is right now we still have a million adults who are unvaccinated,” says Dr. Andrew Morris, a professor of infectious diseases at the University of Toronto, the medical director of the Antimicrobial Stewardship Program at Sinai-University Health Network, and a member of the science table. “And there is no country on the planet who’s had a sustained effect from herd immunity.”
The bar is just really high with the Delta variant, and Ontario hasn’t reached it. Premier Doug Ford and his cabinet have also been soft on issuing true mandates for vaccines and signalled the end of the vaccine passport as quickly as possible, and as a result new vaccinations are dropping, week after week. Juni estimates Ontario could limp to 90 per cent of the 12+ population by year’s end.
And that would still leave almost 1.3 million unvaccinated Ontarians in that age range. And they will be exposed to the virus, sooner or later. Morris points out immunity from the first two shots is expected to wane, which is why the province will inevitably allow everyone access to third-shot boosters, and soon. That’s life with this disease.
But a high enough level of vaccination should remain the goal, along with avoiding more cancelled surgeries, closed schools, shuttered businesses and societal disruption. More improvements in ventilation and filtration would be welcome. A re-emphasis of masks is necessary.
And it’s highly likely that the longer the province waits, the more severe a clampdown will have to be. Some things, in the repeating lap pool of the pandemic, haven’t really changed.
So will Ontario have the stomach for it? Everyone wants this to be over. Ontario could even pretend it was for a while, a little. It’s not. And believe me, as someone who ate most of a whole thing of maple fudge the other night, that can be a depressing thought. Most people are not built for this.
But this doesn’t have to be like the other waves. It can be handled, if Ontario is smart.
“There’s no reason for panic,” says Juni. “We need to to follow a strategy of minimal restrictions that don’t interfere with the societal liberty we have, which includes, of course, changing back your attitudes and take seriously that this pandemic is not over.
“So people who don’t wear their masks because they have a popcorn or a Coke as an excuse in the sports arena? No go. Restaurants say, oh forget about vaccine certificates, they will lift it anyway very soon? No go. Going into places that seem really crowded that you wouldn’t have seen before the Thanksgiving weekend? No go.”
Juni points to a little less contact, a rededication to masking, a harder line on vaccine passports, more vaccination including of five-11-year-olds, and a third dose when it’s available. It’s not too much.
“But if we wait and continue to be complacent, it could result in more restrictions,” says Juni. “Which is highly unnecessary. Don’t panic. Don’t get emotional. Just follow a strategy that allows us to do with this as painlessly as possible. That’s all. And if we help each other a little bit with that, we will be OK.”
You’re tired. Keep going.
Article From: The Star
Author: Bruce Arthur
